Saturday, February 16, 2008

Second Question

As pitchers and catchers report to spring training, the Rockies will have basically the same position players we saw last year, with one glaring omission: Kaz Matsui was signed by the Astros in the offseason. This leaves Clint Hurdle with two questions: who will bat second (or lead off if Taveras is hurt again), and who will man second base? The first question is the easier one: I'm guessing they move Tulo back to the second spot in the lineup, so the potential lineup going into the season will look something like this:

  1. Willy Taveras
  2. Troy Tulowitzki
  3. Matt Holliday
  4. Todd Helton
  5. Garrett Atkins
  6. Brad Hawpe
  7. ? (2B)
  8. Yorvit Terribleba

As you can see, I assume an unknown second-baseman will bat higher than Yorvit. But the question mark at second remains: Who can replace the speed (32 stolen bases) and defense of Kaz Matsui? Let's not forget that among National League starters, Kaz' .992 fielding percentage was tops. Kaz was instrumental in the Rockies record-setting team defense in '07, and he was half of the vicious combo (with Tulo) that knocked out 84 double plays in 102 games. The Astros got a defensive stud to complement Tejada at short, and the Rockies now have a gaping hole at second. Thus far, the Rox have two perennial backups, Omar Quintanilla and Clint Barmes, vying for the 2B job - and unless they blow up in spring training, I don't see either of them starting the season at second. So it comes down to the three other second base options: Ian Stewart, Jayson Nix, and Marcus Giles.


Although there's been more talk about Nix, you have to call Stewart (pictured at right) an early front-runner for the spot. A former first-round draft pick, Stewart was considered one of the Rockies top prospects before a pair of mediocre seasons in the minor league system. He bounced back in Colorado Springs last year, hitting .304 with 15 hr, 65 rbi, and an .857 OPS. He's been a third baseman throughout his (young) career, so he'll need to impress at second in spring training before Clint will feel comfortable starting him there on opening day. He will be at least as good as Kaz with his bat (and will hit a hell of a lot more long-balls), and we can expect about half as many steals as Kaz had last year. But the defense is still a question. It'll be interesting to see how Stewart handles himself at second throughout spring training.

Jayson Nix is another former first-round pick, and based on the early chatter on local sports stations, he'd be starting at second if the season started today. Nix is the closest thing the Rockies have to the Kaz mold, as he is fast (39 steals in 50 attempts over the last two seasons in AAA) and he knows how to play second. He also hit a respectable .292 in 439 at bats last year.

Marcus Giles, the old man of the group at age 29, is a Non-Roster Invitee, but if Nix and Stewart don't work out at second, Giles has the experience. The bat is a huge concern, as this guy's batting average has been dropping thirty points each season, with a disgusting .229 average and .621 OPS in 420 at bats last year. The defense is ok, with a career .982 fielding pct at second. There's also an outside chance that we'll see Jeff Baker take second base. Baker has never played second in the majors, and he hasn't done much with the bat while he's been in Denver, but he hit .305 with 20 hr and 108 rbi in his last full AAA season, 2006.

Over the next six weeks, I'm sure a clearer picture will emerge, but at this point I'm guessing we'll see Nix starting the season at 2B, mostly based on his defense. In other news, I added two new links on the left-hand side of Fool's Platinum: An excellent Rockies blog, Purple Row, that I can't believe I just found, as well as my old reliable online statistics warehouse, Baseball Reference.

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